Aging & Fitness Part 1: Why Age is No Barrier to Success

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Consider this list, what do you see?

AgeAthleteSportNotable MilestoneYear Achieved
41Eamonn CoghlanTrackSub-4-minute mile1994
41Dara TorresSwimming3 Olympic silver medals2008
44Yekaterina PodkopayevaTrackWorld Indoor 1500m gold1997
45Sean YatesCyclingNational 50-mile TT podium2005
47Nick CraigCyclingNational mountain bike titles2016
49Bernard HopkinsBoxingOldest world champion2014
50Phil MickelsonGolfOldest major championship winner2021
56Kazuyoshi MiuraFootballOldest active professional player2023
64Diana NyadSwimmingCuba to Florida swim (no cage)2013
73Ed WhitlockMarathonSub-3-hour marathon2004
82Sister Madonna BuderTriathlonOldest Ironman finisher2012
85Hiroo TanakaTrack15.19s 100m sprint2016
90Olga KotelkoTrack & Field30+ Masters world records2009
92Mathea AllansmithRunningOldest female 10K finisher2022
99Tom MooreWalking100 garden lengths for charity2020
100Fauja SinghMarathonFirst centenarian marathon finisher2011
103Robert MarchandCyclingClimbed Col Robert Marchand2014

What I see is that although performance declines with age, age itself is no barrier to success. You can probably be nationally competitive at 50 years… provided you don’t begin training at 45 years! What I am trying to say, is that in my opinion training and historical habits and current daily habits count more than simple age. Age is a number. You can almost ignore it. Now, can I prove it? First, let’s start with the bad news… what declines are typical with ageing?

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Headline Physical Changes

Here are key physiological changes limiting performance with age (somewhat simplified and assuming training is static!):

#Physiological VariableEstimated Rate of DeclineCorrected / Updated ContextPerformance Impact
1Height~1 cm per decade after age 40.Due to compression of intervertebral discs and postural changes.Alters centre of gravity and biomechanical leverage.
2Body FatIncreases ~1–2% per decade.Visceral fat increases while lean body mass decreases, shifting overall composition.Decreases power-to-weight ratio; increases metabolic cost of movement.
3Muscle MassDecreases 3–8% per decade after age 30.Accelerates after age 60. Primarily affects Type II (fast-twitch) muscle fibres.Reduces absolute force generation and basal metabolic rate.
4Muscle StrengthDecreases ~1–1.5% per year after age 50.Strength declines faster than muscle mass due to neurological changes and fibre quality degradation.Limits maximal lifting capacity, sprinting speed, and force output.
5Muscle PowerDecreases ~3–4% per year after age 60.Power (force x velocity) drops at roughly twice the rate of absolute strength due to preferential loss of fast-twitch fibres.Impairs explosive movements, jumping, and rapid recovery from balance loss.
6MelanocytesDecreases ~10–20% per decade (~1-2% annually).Epidermis thins and melanocyte number drops, reducing melanin production.Increases susceptibility to UV damage and slightly impairs thermoregulation (sweat gland function also declines).
7VO2 MaxDecreases ~10% per decade after age 25.Highly dependent on training status. Trained athletes typically see a slower decline (~5% per decade) until age 70.Reduces maximal aerobic threshold and endurance capacity.
8Maximal Heart RateDecreases ~0.7 bpm per year.The primary driver of VO2 max decline. A more accurate formula for adults over 40 is 208 – (0.7 × age).Limits maximal cardiac output during peak exertion.
9Stroke Volume / Cardiac OutputStroke volume declines ~10–20% by age 80.Ejection fraction at rest remains relatively stable in healthy ageing. SV drops at maximal exertion due to increased arterial stiffness and slower ventricular filling, not primarily ejection fraction.Restricts the volume of blood and oxygen delivered to working muscles per beat.
10Blood O2 CapacityNegligible decline in healthy individuals.Haemoglobin and haematocrit remain relatively stable in healthy ageing. The peripheral decline in oxygen extraction (a-vO2 difference) is primarily due to reduced capillary density and mitochondrial volume, not blood O2 capacity.Reduces peripheral oxygen utilisation.
11Forced Vital Capacity (FVC)Decreases ~20–30 ml per year (200–300 ml per decade).Caused by loss of chest wall elasticity and weakened respiratory muscles.Limits maximal lung expansion and tidal volume during exercise.
12MVV & Diffusion CapacityMVV: ~6% per decade.
Diffusion: ~5% per decade.
Alveolar surface area decreases, limiting the speed at which oxygen crosses into the blood.Contributes to exercise-induced arterial hypoxaemia at maximal effort.
13Bone Mineral DensityDecreases ~1% per year after age 40.Accelerates in women post-menopause (up to 2-3% annually for 5 years).Increases risk of stress fractures and limits capacity to absorb high-impact forces.
14Nerve Conduction VelocityDecreases ~1% per year after age 50.Demyelination and loss of motor neurons slow signal transmission from brain to muscle.Slows reaction times, reduces coordination, and impairs agility.
15Endocrine FunctionTestosterone drops ~1% per year after 30.Growth hormone and IGF-1 also decline (somatopause), impairing protein synthesis.Slows recovery times, blunts hypertrophy response, and reduces aggression/drive.

Now let’s look at aerobic (cycling/running) and anaerobic (lifting/strength) changes with age. If we look in more detail, the story is not that simple. It is not a straight line.

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Aerobic Fitness vs Age

If we track performance by age closely in the lab or in the field we see this:

VO2 max vs Age

Changes in peak V02 with age
Changes in peak V02 with age (left) Strait and Lakatta (Heart Fail Clin. 2012)

100m vs Age

100m sprint vs age graph

Marathon vs Age

Marathon times vs age graph

Strength vs Age

Strength vs age graph

Big Data (Strength)

Competition lifters age vs strength
Competition lifters (n=1513 IPF) who have competed squat, bench press, and deadlift from www.strongur.io

The last figure is interesting because it comprises all the primary data from 1500 individuals. With this, it is possible to look at the contribution of age to curve fit which is roughly the same as asking:

What % of the variation in strength is due to ageing itself?

The answer is it depends on how much is due to other factors such as genetics, training history etc, but in beginners, the effect of age is only 2–5% and in elites it might be 40% (and in the middle maybe around 10–20%). If you write down all contributory factors, then it looks something like this (for those starting out):

What determines variations in strength or endurance?

Factors determining strength variation
Data adapted from strongur.io

Genetics seems to be the largest effect (linkcitation). Now, we should examine these training effects in more detail, what we want to know is whether training is more effective at a younger or older age?

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Training Effect with Age

Given that genetics, age and gender are fixed variables, and discounting the historical effect of what you did in the past (training years), then current training/coaching/events might contribute 65% of the variance in performance!

When you train, no doubt you get a big effect, provided you don’t give up of course. The effect is usually much larger than the effect of age alone. We can show this with real data. Here is the effect of training (elite vs just started within 6 months) on the strength index of real athletes:

Effect of training on strength index
Data from strongur.io

Training dominates the relatively modest effect of age, at least outside of age extremes. And now let’s look at the same factor (influence of age & training) on endurance (using the proxy of VO2 max).

Actually, we used to think it looked like a straight line, like this, but this isn’t quite correct:

Linear decline of VO2max misconception

In a study of 810 people followed for 8 years, Fleg et al. (2005) (linkref) clarified that the decline is not linear, with a larger rate of decline after 60 years.

It actually looks like this (pretty much the same as strength effects above):

Non-linear decline of VO2max

Now, if you take the difference between these two groups, i.e., trained and untrained, then it looks like this plot (red), and this is an indication of how much you gain in absolute terms if you start training at a specific age.

Absolute gains from training vs age
Data from strongur.io

BUT WAIT, there is another plot, which I have never seen before, it is the plot of the relative gains (vs untrained) you get by training (=(trained-untrained)/trained), and this is even more dramatic!

Relative gains from training vs age

What these last two graphs show is that you make the largest, fastest absolute gains at an early age, but you never fail to benefit from training. In fact, if you didn’t train before (or had a big gap) then you should definitely begin to train later in life as the benefits are really large *relative to the norms* at your age. Not sure? Ok, try this…

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Please consider these three brothers: Tony, Javier and Deter

Three brothers comparison
Tony 58, Javier 58, Deter 68

Each had a different lifestyle and each had a test on the bicycle ergometer every 10 years.

Tony is now 58yrs, and untrained after a life behind a desk. His VO2 max is 18. Even at 30 yrs his VO2 max best was 28.

Javier is also 58yrs but he is a regular triathlete age grouper. His VO2 max is 44 and at its best was 66.

Deter is 68yrs and he was always active and even now, does an online gym and spin class. His VO2 max is 27 but at his best was 49. Confused? OK, here is all their VO2 max test results (from past and future) from every decade lined up:

VO2 max over time for three brothers

Tony’s VO2 max is in danger of impacting on his independence, if not mortality from 70yrs. Indeed, Posner et al. (linkpdf) showed that the ability to perform activities of daily living was not dependent on aerobic fitness until peak V̇o2 dropped below ≈750 mL/min (or around 12 ml/min @ 60kg).

VO2 max dependency threshold

Javier’s VO2 max is almost 2.5x Tony’s. Deter, despite being 10 years older, has a healthy VO2 max, still 1.7x Tony’s and he will stay healthy well into his 90s.

This massive relative benefit of training with age will maximise quality of life, so that healthy living lasts longer and morbidity / illness / dependency is much less as shown here:

Quality of life timeline with training

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Conclusion

Some decline in performance is inevitable with age but the good news is you can vastly mitigate this by training consistently. In fact, the older you are, then the more relative benefit you will get from training. So if you have had a big gap in your training, or you are new to training in your 50s, 60s or 70s then now is the perfect time to restart.

In the next blog, we will consider the mechanisms by which we age. It’s linkhere.

Tony Rees profile picture
@tony_rees123

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Citations and Further Reading

Strait, J. B., & Lakatta, E. G. (2012). Aging-associated cardiovascular changes and their relationship to heart failure. Heart Failure Clinics, 8(1), 143–164. Link

Fleg, J. L., Morrell, C. H., Bos, A. G., Brant, L. J., Talbot, L. A., Wright, J. G., & Lakatta, E. G. (2005). Accelerated longitudinal decline of aerobic capacity in healthy older adults. Circulation, 112(5), 674–682. Link

Posner, J. D., Gorman, K. M., Gitlin, L. N., Sands, L. P., Kleban, M., Windsor, L. A., & Shaw, C. (1995). Effects of exercise training in the elderly on the occurrence and time to onset of cardiovascular diagnoses. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 43(3), 232–237. PDF

Strongur.io Data Analysis: Age and Strength. www.strongur.io

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